Average
$3,716
Arithmetic mean
MATE ROV archive reference
Reference Class Forecasting
Whole ROV cost distribution
Histogram of observed projects with a fitted normal curve · n = 378
ObservedNormal fit
Median
$2,782
Half fall below this value
Middle 50%
$1,500–$5,306
25th through 75th percentile
Sample
378 observations
17 archive years
Spread: $2,991 standard deviation; observed range $97–$14,663.
Data quality: High- and medium-confidence archive values. Travel is excluded; 2 extreme outliers were removed using a robust IQR fence. The fitted curve is a planning aid, not a claim that costs are normally distributed.
README
About the forecast
What this is
Reference class forecasting compares a planned ROV project with completed projects from the MATE ROV archive. The chart combines an observed histogram with a fitted normal curve so you can see both the source distribution and a simple planning model.
Data boundaries
Whole-ROV costs prioritize company specification sheets; subsystem costs come from technical-document BOMs and use four broad engineering groups. Travel, lodging, registration, and fundraising are excluded. Dollar values are nominal and are not adjusted for inflation.
How to use it
Choose a measure, then narrow by competition class, year, and subsystem. The median and middle 50% are usually more useful than the average when a few expensive projects stretch the distribution. Extreme whole-ROV outliers are removed with a robust IQR rule; treat results with fewer than 12 observations as directional.
Source
Values were extracted from public MATE ROV technical reports, specification sheets, budgets, and bills of materials published from 2004 through 2025.
View MATE ROV archives ↗